As you might expect, Sid Richardson is always following trends and factors that play into the supply and demand of carbon black and the rubber industry at large. In reports and papers from the end of 2013/early ‘14, we had made note of trends in the NAFTA landscape, including the “oil boom,” shifts in the tire market, as well as other contributing factors tied to Asian, Russian and European markets. Suffice it to say, we entered 2014 eyeing some rising trends in demand along with some things hanging in the balance.
So where are we now?
As part of our first-quarter monitoring and planning activities (‘15), Sid Richardson compiled news updates, reports, figures and revised prediction models from some of the industry’s most trusted news outlets and 3rd party consulting firms (Including: Trade Map - International Trade Centre, Carbon Black World Data Book & Quarterly Updates – Notch Consulting Group, The European Rubber Journal, U.S. Monthly Tire Shipment Report - Rubber Manufacturers Association).
What did we find?
In short – the import numbers were up (higher than we thought) and numerous factors are suggesting demand isn’t slowing. While we wait for geopolitical issues to play out and other demand related factors to settle worldwide, we do know that, since 2011, almost $6.9 billion has been budgeted by tire manufactures for investment in North America. Notch Consulting and revised SKP Models are predicting eye-raising numbers for NAFTA carbon black demand over the next year to year and a half (details of which are contained in our report). Meanwhile, effective capacity remains a concern, leaving key industry consultants to predict a carbon black shortage is coming sooner than originally expected.
So what are the numbers? What are these suggested time lines?
Those numbers, assessments and predictions are contained in our 2015 NAFTA Carbon Black Industry Report - “A Year Later.” You can download the PDF file below.
NAFTA and US Carbon Black Imports
NAFTA and US Tire Imports
Carbon Black (NAFTA) Nameplate Capacity
Tire Shipment Reports and Trends
North American Tire Companies: Planned Expansions (by company, by tire)
The Revised SKP Model Projecting Supply vs. Demand